Poll Puzzle

July 25, 2013
Posted by Jay Livingston

People responding to opinion surveys don’t have to be consistent or logical.  That’s why using only a few questions to gauge public preferences on policy is a risky business.  Here are results on three questions from a recent NBC/WSJ poll.

(Click on the graphic for a larger and clearer view.)
Obama’s approval rating is nearly four times greater than that of Congress. Yet by ten percentage points (48% - 38%) people prefer that Congress “take the lead in setting policy for the country.” 

This paradoxical result is not a one-off.  Approval of the president almost always greater than approval of Congress.  Since January 2005, approval of Congress has never been above 40% and is often below 20%.  Yet since at least 1994, the earliest year shown in the survey, only once has the president topped Congress on the “take the lead” question.  That one time was January 2002, only four months after the attacks on the Trade Towers and Pentagon.

Political scientists must have an explanation for this.  I just don’t know what it is.

1 comment:

Paulo said...

But if people see Congress's role as leading public policy, then their disapproval likely stems from the perceived failure to do actually this. If Congress was functional enough to actually set policy effectively, people's opinion of it would presumably improve.

To put it another way: If you had an electrician who was good because she fixed your wiring and a plumber who was bad because he hasn't fixed your sink, who should be fixing your sink?